UAFP Analysis: «Risks of the heating season 2025–2026»
Energy and Climate
For the fourth year of full-scale war, Ukraine has been preparing for just one winter at a time – the upcoming one. That is necessary, but not sufficient. Experts at the Ukraine Facility Platform have produced a report titled «Risks of the heating season 2025–2026», in which they highlight the flaws of the «winter-to-winter» planning model and propose constructive policy solutions to strengthen the resilience of the country’s energy system.
Since Russia has been deliberately destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, the state’s strategy has remained reactive – responding to similar threats year after year. Our analysis of this approach reveals several negative consequences:
1️⃣ Short-sighted tactics: «Survive winter to winter»
Ukraine continues to live in a one-year cycle focused on preparation for the coming winter. This approach denies the opportunity for the country to prepare its energy system for upcoming heating seasons because it lacks an objective risk assessment. As a result, no strategy has yet been developed that would allow Ukraine’s energy sector to break out of the self-reinforcing cycle of winter damage and summer repair, or transition to a decentralized energy system.
2️⃣ Energy policy remains oriented toward peacetime consumption trends
The state continues to follow pre-war patterns of reducing electricity and natural gas consumption, accumulating energy resources «just to meet demand». But a system vulnerable to mass attacks responds to any change in consumption behaviour, and at certain times requires larger volumes of energy resources. Myopic reserve-building can lead to shortages in January-February.
3️⃣ Lack of conditions for developing decentralized generation in regions and incentives for private investment
The state has not yet developed a strategic approach to building new capacities around Ukrainian territorial communities, nor created conditions that would attract private investment. Because of the debt crisis in the energy market, lack of trust in national and local authorities, absence of guarantees of return on investment and distorted regulation, businesses are not investing in system resilience; instead they focus only on building new assets for their own needs.
As a result, short-term approaches during the autumn-winter period amplify risks, which grow in intensity alongside Russian attacks.
Analysts at UAFP have identified the following risk factors that will affect Ukraine’s energy system during the 2025-2026 heating season:
🔹 Deficit of generating capacities caused by Russian attacks and the absence of new power plants in the system;
🔹 Shortage of coal, needed for power generation and natural gas for the energy sector and industry;
🔹 Lack of financial resources in energy companies for repairs and replenishment of equipment reserves;
🔹 Lack of private investment in the development of decentralized generation;
🔹 Weakened electricity and gas grid infrastructure in specific regions.
Based on their findings, UAFP analysts formulated key recommendations for how Ukraine should act to steadily strengthen its energy system each yea – without waiting for the end of hostilities:
1️⃣ Transition to robust medium-term planning for the protection of the energy system, based on lessons learned from previous periods.
2️⃣ Revise the approach to forming energy reserves, factoring in heightened risks and the need to sustain economic activity during wartime.
3️⃣ Prioritize replacement of damaged generation capacities with new decentralized facilities.
4️⃣ Ensure technical readiness of the Ukrainian communities to cooperate with private businesses on long-term energy projects.
5️⃣ Prioritize financial support from banks and international financial institutions for projects initiated by businesses and communities.
6️⃣ Complete the integration of Ukrainian and European energy markets.
The full report «Risks of the heating season 2025–2026» is available in both Ukrainian and English:
