The paper note «European and Ukrainian Security at Risk: Some Elements of a Coping Strategy» was prepared by the former Ambassador of the Netherlands to Ukraine (2013–2017) and member of the Coordination Committee of the Ukraine Facility Platform, Kees Klompenhouwer.

The paper outlines the global context of Russia’s war against Ukraine and highlights key trends and driving forces. The document analyses the proposals of the European Commission as well as the peace negotiations between the United States and Russia. The core idea of Klompenhouwer is that Ukraine and Europe should join efforts to build a military-industrial complex capable of effectively countering Russia. He shows the possible sources of financial capacities for joint development.

Klompenhouwer presented the document in November at a meeting in Lviv with leading experts from Europe. The result is the creation of the EU-UA Strategic Defence Advisory Group, which brings together experts, politicians, diplomats, and former government officials from Poland, France, Great Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, and Ukraine.

Here are the main bullet points outlining the global context:

  • There are still no real indications of Russian readiness for an end to military hostilities against Ukraine and its hybrid war against Europe.
  • Europe must urgently reassess and reaffirm its position so as not to be overwhelmed by the new geopolitical realities. The time for complacency is over.
  • Russia is leading in Ukraine a war of choice, globalised by drawing in China, North Korea and Iran, thereby kindling wider consequences beyond Europe alone.
  • China’s leaders also harbour a revanchist mindset and are supporting Russia in an attempt to bind the West to this European conflict, while China is systematically extending its influence in the world.
  • The US administration’s main concern is China, not Europe. America does not want to be drawn into a two-front war, which it believes it could not manage.
  • Unity of European and Ukrainian diplomatic efforts will continue to be crucial in mitigating the tendency of the Trump administration to make untimely concessions to Russia and entertain unrealistic expectations about Russia.

The fate of Ukraine and Europe has become linked in all essential domains: political, military, technological, economic and cultural. It has become an existential relationship. There have been many supportive initiatives, mostly based on improvisation led by the urgency of the situation. It is now time to look at how to sustain the relationship in order to fill the gaps and use opportunities.

Military aid to Ukraine should be as efficient/effective as possible. That will not work if NATO’s vision of war and the reality on the battlefield are not aligned. To bridge this gap, cooperation on military strategy and defence-industrial development with Ukraine should be a priority. So Europe should work with Ukraine on a common strategy encompassing diplomatic, military, industrial and technological aims.

Conducting a European audit of weapon production in Ukraine might clarify concrete opportunities. Thus Ukraine can help Europe speed up the innovation cycle, produce weapons at scale and at lower cost. This should be highly relevant for Europe’s defence posture, which now lacks both cost-effectiveness and sustainability.

Joint production of weapons would therefore work both ways:

  • Sustain Ukraine’s war needs.
  • Help Europe innovate and scale. It could also help overcome export licence and software restrictions on the actual use of weapons.

Europe should be able to convince Russia’s leadership that its war leads to a strategic impasse in which Russia will lose out. The independent nuclear forces of France and the UK can play an important role as an additional layer of protection alongside the US nuclear guarantee. The deployment of the British and French nuclear forces across Europe should therefore be facilitated in exercises and in case of crisis.

The absence of good intelligence presages defeat. Therefore Ukraine and Europe must enhance their capabilities in this field.

For Europe and Ukraine, investing in each other’s defence industries and common procurement is the obvious way forward, though many hurdles – legal, administrative and financial – must be overcome, the author concludes.

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